Democracy Maps
Forecasting Democracy: Expected Changes to Voting and Election Policies in 2025
Legislative sessions following presidential election years are historically the most active in terms of election and voting legislation. MAP expects over 3,000 election- and voting-related bills to be introduced across the country, in addition to shifts led by a new federal administration.
So, what does this all mean for democracy? This brief from MAP’s Democracy Program forecasts trends and potential shifts in the voting and election landscape in 2025 in terms of:
- Potential Federal Policy Changes
- Potential State Level Policy Changes
- Policies to Watch
- States to Watch
Our policy team will continue to follow these trends and more in real time through our Democracy Maps, which track more than 50 policies related to elections and voting, and provide state-by-state details for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Potential Changes at the Federal Level
While Republicans have gained control of Congress, narrow margins in the House and the filibuster in the Senate mean that hurdles remain for any legislation to be passed. These obstacles explain why much of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 focuses on the administrative state and executive actions. Here are some of the ways the new administration could impact democracy, informed by the proposals laid out in Project 2025:
- Changes at the Department of Justice. Historically, the DOJ has been in charge of enforcing important federal voting laws, including the Voting Rights Act and the National Voter Registration Act. The incoming administration will likely curtail the enforcement of these laws. Project 2025 also proposes shifting the power over election related prosecutions to the criminal division of the DOJ. This could mean a change in focus from protecting voting rights to criminalizing pro-voter initiatives and pursuing spurious claims of voter fraud and non-citizen voting. There is also a potential for interference in state election administration through the prosecution of nonpartisan election officials, as well as requiring states to provide access to voter rolls, leading to targeting and purges.
- Project 2025 also proposes cutting critical funding for election infrastructure, both by reducing grants for states as well as budgets for agencies like the Department of Homeland Security who have led efforts to prevent foreign interference in elections.
- Other harmful proposals in Project 2025 include prohibiting social media companies from restricting disinformation and interfering with the operation of the census by replacing civil servants with political appointees, leading to distortion of data that will most likely harm already underrepresented groups.
- President Trump has also repeatedly stated that he will “demand universal voter ID, same day voting, and only paper ballots.” While the administration lacks the power to make all of these changes unilaterally, there are many harms that can be forecasted. In Trump’s first term, the DOJ supported state purges of voter rolls in court, and this is likely to happen again, particularly through the guise of preventing non-citizen voting.
- In addition to reversing their current positions challenging purges in Alabama and Virginia, the DOJ is also likely to reverse their positions in litigation challenging mail voting restrictions in a number of states, including Georgia, Florida, and Texas. Project 2025 also calls for litigation against states that allow “ballot curing”, a policy that allows voters to correct errors with their ballot in order to have them counted.
- Lastly, the DOJ is likely to reverse their positions in litigation challenging partisan gerrymandering in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Dakota.
It is critical to note that states are also likely to be emboldened to pursue new restrictions in a wide range of policies due to the lack of opposition from the federal government.
Potential State Level Policy Changes
As mentioned previously, we anticipate an active legislative year with over 3,000 election- and voting-related bills expected to be introduced across the country. The dynamic across the states discussed in our Diverging Democracy report is likely to continue in 2025, with Republican controlled states seeking to put in place further restrictions, and Democratic controlled states continuing to expand access for voters and protections for democracy.
The 2024 election cycle saw a surprisingly small amount of changeover in state party control, which allows us to even better forecast the changes we might see in 2025. We anticipate broad efforts by Democratic controlled states to proactively resist policy changes from the new administration, like through the implementation of state level voting rights acts (VRAs) that attempt to mitigate harm from the weakening of the federal VRA. There will also be a strong focus on litigation by these states to combat actions by the new administration. We also expect renewed interest in structural reforms including redistricting and campaign finance.
Policies to Watch
State Voting Rights Acts
Over the past decade, the federal VRA has been stripped of many of its most important provisions through Supreme Court decisions. As a result, some states have taken steps to implement protections governing their states. These state-level voting rights acts are generally modeled after provisions of the federal Voting Rights Act. State voting rights acts provide tools to fight voter suppression, protect against intimidation, and require local jurisdictions to receive clearance from the state before implementing changes that could result in discrimination.
These laws have gained momentum in recent years — since the 2020 election, five states have enacted their own voting rights acts, and this year, Alabama, Colorado, Michigan and New Jersey have already introduced new state level voting rights acts.
Voting by Mail
Following the dramatic increase in voters utilizing mail voting in 2020, almost all states adjusted their laws on mail/absentee ballots. Positive changes that can be expected in this area include allowing no-excuse absentee voting, expanding the use of drop boxes, and allowing voters to fix errors with their ballots. Conversely, we expect a number of states to restrict options for mail voting, limit or ban drop boxes, and impose additional requirements for returning ballots such as witness signatures or copies of ID.
Over 100 bills have already been filed across the states in 2025 to adjust absentee and mail voting policies. In terms of expansive legislation, Delaware legislators filed a bill to allow no-excuse absentee voting, and New York lawmakers introduced a bill to create all-mail elections. Conversely, Arizona legislators have introduced a number of restrictive bills to shorten ballot return deadlines, limit ballot return locations and create new ID requirements for mail ballots. Wyoming lawmakers have introduced legislation to ban the use of drop boxes in the state.
Noncitizen voting bans and proof of citizenship requirements
Misinformation around claims of non-citizen voting has led in part to a concerning new trend, evident by the passage of numerous ballot measures in 2024 to explicitly ban non-citizen voting. While this may seem like common sense policy, in reality it is already illegal for non-citizens to vote. The likely reason for these policies is not only to feed into misinformation, but also to provide justification for enacting restrictive policies that result in the purging of eligible voters and imposing extremely burdensome documentation requirements to register, as seen in Arizona and New Hampshire. These proof of citizenship policies require voters to provide documents such as original birth certificates in order to register, although surveys have shown that potentially 1 in 10 voters do not possess such documents. Lawmakers in Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey and Texas have already introduced these bills this year.
Voter Roll Purges
Voter lists are an important component of a well-functioning election administration system. To maintain the accuracy of their lists, states utilize a number of methods, such as removing voters who have moved or died. However, some states utilize more aggressive tactics which can result in unwarranted removal from registration lists, including removal based solely on a voter’s inactivity in recent elections. This practice results in the erroneous removal of hundreds of thousands of voters each year and has a disproportionate impact on voters from historically underrepresented backgrounds.
Particularly without the backstop of the DOJ challenging these purges in court, we expect to see this trend increase in 2025. Legislation to create more restrictive voter purge policies has already been introduced in Oklahoma, Missouri, New Jersey, Texas and Virginia this year.
Voter ID
Fueled in part by unfounded claims of voter fraud, many states have created increasingly burdensome voter ID requirements that create barriers for eligible voters, particularly voters of color. Since 2020, at least ten states have made substantial and restrictive changes to their voter ID requirements. We expect efforts to impose new ID requirements to continue in 2025.
Wisconsin lawmakers are finalizing efforts to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot in April to enshrine the state’s strict ID requirement. Legislation to enact restrictive ID requirements has already been filed in Arizona, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia and Texas this year.
States to Watch
While legislation to adjust election and voting policies is likely to be introduced in all 50 states and D.C. during this year’s legislative sessions, here are some key states to watch:
Arizona
This year, Republicans in Arizona have prioritized expediting the process and speed by which election results are reported, but they will likely have to convince the Democratic governor to support these measures. Legislators in the state have already introduced almost a dozen relevant bills, including proposals to tighten ballot return deadlines, restrict ballot return locations, create stricter ID requirements for mail ballots, and eliminate the use of vote centers.
Illinois
Democrats continue to hold a trifecta in Illinois and are expected to pursue expansive legislation to improve the state’s already strong system of election and voting policies. Lawmakers in Illinois have already filed bills to create a statewide ballot tracking system and allow incarcerated individuals to maintain their right to vote.
Missouri
Lawmakers in Missouri have already been particularly active in 2025, filing over 30 bills related to election and voting policies. Notable proposals include legislation to require documentary proof of citizenship, create new criminal penalties targeting election officials, and the implementation of a closed primary system.
New York
Legislators in New York have also been active early in their legislative session, filing over 20 bills related to election and voting policy. These include legislation to improve automatic and pre-registration processes, requiring the state to join the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), allowing incarcerated individuals to maintain their voting rights, and implementing all-mail elections.
Texas
The state legislature in Texas only meets in odd-numbered years, and legislators in the state have been by far the most active already in 2025, filing over 90 election and voting related bills. Notable proposed legislation includes requiring documentary proof of citizenship, allowing legislative interference in election administration, creating more opportunities for voter purges, eliminating the use of vote centers, and creating new, strict voter ID requirements.
▸▸ Learn more
- Read MAP’s Diverging Democracy report here.
- Visit MAP’s website to view all of our resources on voting and democracy.
- Read MAP’s 2025 forecast for LGBTQ legislation and policies.
- View the Democracy Maps to see each of the 50+ policies we track.
- Follow MAP’s socials on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Bluesky to stay connected as we release new research and analysis.
